If the DMK is able to sustain the momentum until the assembly polls, the AIADMK especially and the PMK and possibly the infant TVK too would find it hard to sign up with the BJP, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
Overseas fundraising by Indian firms is experiencing a robust revival in 2024, following a lacklustre 2023. This resurgence is primarily driven by strong demand for high-yield bonds from international investors amid improving liquidity conditions and reduced hedging costs. Indian companies raised ~32,619 crore through overseas bonds in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total amount raised via such instruments in the entire 2023, which stood at ~31,218 crore, according to PRIME Database. In comparison, ~45,237 crore was raised in 2022 and ~1.05 trillion was secured in 2021.
Gold prices slumped for the second straight session by Rs 1,150 to Rs 78,350 per 10 grams in the national capital on Monday on frantic selling by stockists and retailers, the All India Sarafa Association said. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity closed at Rs 79,500 per 10 grams on Friday.
Among the Sensex firms, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra and JSW Steel were the major laggards. Power Grid, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra and NTPC were among the gainers.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic inflation data and global trends would be key driving factors in dictating movement in the market this week, as the Lok Sabha elections outcome and the RBI policy decision are behind us, analysts said. The past week was a roller-coaster ride for investors as markets swung sharply in both directions before closing with strong gains.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday pointed to a possible December interest rate "liftoff" but said rates would rise only slowly from then on to nurture the U.S. economic recovery.
'In the short term you keep your return expectations very, very low; in the medium term be prepared to invest and in the long term growth will come and your returns from stocks will be high.'
Foreign investors were net sellers of domestic debt in October for the first time since the official inclusion of Indian government bonds in the JP Morgan bond indices, with net outflow worth Rs 4,697 crore. This marked the second instance in the current calendar year where foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers in a month.
Sensex drops 138 points on foreign fund outflow
Among the 30 Sensex firms, HCL Technologies, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Tech Mahindra, JSW Steel, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro and Tata Consultancy Services were the biggest gainers. Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, Maruti and Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards.
Among the Sensex stocks, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Maruti Suzuki India, NTPC, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Bharti Airtel, ITC and Tech Mahindra were the major gainers. Reliance Industries, Tata Motors, Infosys, Mahindra and Mahindra, Bajaj Finance and Axis Bank were the laggards.
With the first quarter earnings season coming to an end, the domestic equity markets would be driven by global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said. The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee against the dollar would also drive trends in the market. "Macroeconomic indicators, trends in global stock markets and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days," Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
From the Sensex pack, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries and Sun Pharma were among the biggest gainers. Bharti Airtel, Titan, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
In the Sensex pack, 20 stocks ended in the red while 37 of the Nifty constituents closed the session with losses. NTPC was the biggest loser among the Sensex constituents, ending with a loss of 2.71 per cent.
The US economy could show resilience around the second or third quarter on the housing front, which will increase chances of rate hikes
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
The market's sensitivity to the US Fed's balance sheet changes makes it vulnerable to the possible tapering of the bond buying programme and the resulting stagnation or even shrinkage in the balance sheet.
Investors' wealth soared by Rs 10.58 lakh crore in three days of the market rally, where the BSE benchmark jumped over 2 per cent, and hit an all-time high on Monday. Extending its winning momentum to the third day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 363.20 points or 0.49 per cent to settle at 74,014.55. During the day, it zoomed 603.27 points or 0.81 per cent to hit its record high of 74,254.62.
The risk of a collision between the Federal Reserve and the markets grew on Friday after Fed governor Randall Kroszner made it clear that the US central bank was not planning to cut interest rates at its next policy meeting, but was largely ignored by investors.
Foreign investors have continued selling in the Indian market, pulling out a massive Rs 85,790 crore (around $10.2 billion) from equities this month due to Chinese stimulus measures, attractive stock valuations, and the elevated pricing of domestic equities. October is turning into the worst-ever month in terms of foreign fund outflows. In March 2020, FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to take a "more dovish" stance in its upcoming monetary policy review on December 2 and may go in for a cut repo rate in February, according to a British brokerage house report.
RBI will now increasingly shift focus to domestic parameters
With the earnings season drawing to a close, stock markets will take cues from global trends and foreign investors' trading activity this week, analysts said. The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be the major highlight this week, experts said. "This week, there are fewer cues on the macro and micro fronts, as the Q1 earnings season has concluded.
The markets, at this point, have rallied on the view that the Fed will not budge from the zero-bound as long as inflation remains subdued
Fear of a recession in the US due to rising unemployment has added to the concerns of India's IT services sector, which was seeing some growth returning after Q1FY25 results. The Nifty IT closed 3.26 per cent down, as major IT services companies' stock value fell. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India's largest IT services firm, saw its stock price fall 4 per cent during intraday trading.
Improvements in the labour market has triggered this sentiment.
Years of unprecedented stimulus has left the Fed swollen with $4.5 trillion in bonds
Fed is expected to deliver a more market-neutral statement
Corporate bond issuances fell by around 22 per cent in August, despite easing yields as issuers delayed raising funds awaiting the US Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates from this month. Corporates and financial institutions expect yields to fall further and borrowing costs to become cheaper, said market participants. The US Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps in the 17-18 September meeting, marking the start of a downward interest rate cycle.
This is the first hike in about a decade, signaling a recovery.
The report did not specify the impact the rate hike will have on India.
At the same time, however, officials at the central bank lowered their projections for the long-run target interest rate, evidence of slightly diminished expectations for a nation climbing out of a severe crisis and struggling with demographic headwinds like declining labor force participation.
Benchmark indices finished on a weak note on Thursday, extending their previous day's decline amid a negative trend in global equity markets after the US Fed hiked interest rates by 75 basis points. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 69.68 points or 0.11 per cent to settle at 60,836.41. During the day, it tanked 420.95 points or 0.69 per cent to 60,485.14.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
The Fed made clear that the rate hike was a tentative beginning to a "gradual" tightening cycle
At present, the repo rate acts as the policy rate when liquidity is in deficit mode while reverse repo becomes the operating rate when there liquidity is surplus.
The US Federal Reserve late on Tuesday slashed its lending rate from 1 per cent to zero to 0.25 per cent.
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